Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 42.516176 50.154969 58.513032 68.303151 79.420804 91.617584 105.973261
2024-12-22 28.306709 37.664311 48.916635 63.302313 81.050219 102.066739 128.657885
2024-12-29 22.798711 33.234376 46.695989 65.027697 88.995586 118.894929 158.588997
2025-01-05 18.259220 28.879342 43.452101 64.402568 93.162394 130.610157 182.296010
2025-01-12 16.378389 27.704684 44.046462 68.576268 103.556689 150.629341 217.542390
2025-01-19 12.832392 23.403809 39.526988 64.889001 102.555819 155.029426 231.937233
2025-01-26 11.415622 22.137827 39.238063 67.151669 109.939979 171.154923 262.983747
2025-02-02 10.714078 21.911298 40.465480 71.713897 120.893310 192.811713 302.765607
2025-02-09 9.639607 20.845891 40.168557 73.771368 128.088455 209.288694 335.804828
2025-02-16 8.570525 19.603302 39.393825 74.909091 133.823685 223.778514 366.484049
2025-02-23 7.491099 18.151743 38.059129 74.928538 137.680909 235.506887 393.451913
2025-03-02 6.319387 16.302301 35.765846 73.036228 138.198395 241.991268 412.627363
2025-03-09 5.449910 15.041840 34.622020 73.451293 143.255684 256.926442 447.274525
2025-03-16 4.146640 12.531613 30.719335 68.464824 138.783897 256.541321 458.343254
2025-03-23 3.685628 11.895098 30.490070 70.330840 146.406938 276.268300 502.332335
2025-03-30 3.095814 10.779732 29.063889 69.665272 149.343537 288.246146 534.225132
2025-04-06 2.944299 10.802586 30.138965 74.119714 162.011735 317.372340 595.598575
2025-04-13 2.295582 9.232738 27.321796 70.184706 158.508150 318.294840 609.831255
2025-04-20 2.092821 8.942596 27.488671 72.599683 167.373349 341.339446 662.451657
2025-04-27 2.027915 9.079083 28.725729 77.466378 181.360685 374.142590 733.058696
2025-05-04 1.843814 8.766558 28.773449 79.660060 190.116633 397.856272 788.769234
2025-05-11 1.640407 8.324892 28.413595 80.872823 196.932760 418.298608 839.489038
2025-05-18 1.419828 7.745640 27.586410 80.893551 201.257407 434.285349 882.886056